The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts modest growth for Italy this year and in 2027, while trimming its outlook for France and Germany, the latest World Economic Outlook shows.
Italy’s steady but limited expansion
The Fund projects Italy’s gross domestic product to rise by 0.5% in 2024 and again in 2027. Deputy director of research Petya Koeva Brooks described the outlook as “modest but expected.” She noted that the National Recovery and Resilience Plan continues to underpin investment, yet higher energy and food prices, together with lingering uncertainty, are curbing household spending.
Inflation expectations have been pushed up. Brooks said the forecast was revised higher because of “greater dependence on energy imports,” and the IMF expects price pressures to stay above target until 2028.
Revisions for France and Germany
France’s growth estimate has been cut to 0.6% for 2024, down 0.3 percentage points from the April projection. The organization also lowers the 2027 forecast to 0.9%.
Germany’s outlook is similarly adjusted, with GDP growth now seen at 0.7% this year and 1.0% in 2025. The revisions reflect concerns over energy costs and broader macro‑economic uncertainty.
Broader European and global context
Spain’s economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. The IMF highlights Middle‑East developments as the most immediate risk, warning that any escalation could dampen growth and raise inflation across the region.
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In a contrasting view, China’s growth is expected to slow to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, down from the previous year’s 5% pace. Brazil’s 2026 growth is set at 2.4%, slipping by two points the following year, matching the Latin American average.
Even as the IMF lifts its global inflation projection to 4.7% for 2026—a 0.3‑point increase from the prior estimate—it anticipates a decline to 3.9% in 2027. The report says the disinflation trend that began in early 2024 has stalled.
Among Africa’s major economies, growth ranges from 4.3% in Nigeria to just 1.3% in South Africa for 2027, highlighting the continent’s divergent performance.
Policy recommendations and outlook
The IMF urges central banks to focus on restoring price stability, emphasizing clear communication, independence, and strong financial supervision. Fiscal policymakers are advised to rebuild buffers and use fiscal tools sparingly.
Structural reforms aimed at energy security and preparedness for artificial intelligence are also called for, reflecting the Fund’s view that long‑term resilience depends on both technological adaptation and sustainable energy policies.
Growth is limited, but not absent.